Hurricane Forecast for the 2008 Season

Forecasters say the natural cycle in air pressure and sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic became more favorable to storms beginning in 1995. The devastating natural program will continue, bringing more hurricanes and storms than ever. The predictions were made for 15 to 20 years to come.

“We don't attribute this to anything humans are doing,” William Gray, forecaster at Colorado State University, said, according to the Baltimore Sun. “These are natural” cycles. This is the result of a combination of warmer sea-surface temperatures and more favorable sea-levels winds, which determine the hurricanes.

Bill Read, the new director of the National Hurricane Center, said last week that he wants the official forecasts to present predictions as being "above average, at average or below average," rather than placing emphasis on any specific storm counts, said NHC spokesman Dennis Feltgen, according to the same source.

Hurricane activity from June to November will be “well about average,” according to CSU’s forecasters Phil Klotzbach and William Gray.

According to the same source, forecasters predicted 15 storms, including 8 hurricanes and three storms that reach “major” status, with Category 3 winds of 111 mph or higher.

A prediction made by forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Center for Climate Prediction is expected to be issued in May.

Knowing that forecasters may overestimate the storm activity, or underestimate it, Bill Read said that this time he wants a more specific prediction. Instead of counting the storms, he wants the official forecasters to present predictions on a scale, and emphasize on the possible effects of an “above average,” “at average,” or “below average” storm.   

One of the storms predicted in 1992 was Hurricane Andrew, which devastated South Florida.




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Mr.
By Nick, (2008-04-10 15:26)
Good article, however forecasters have been saying the exact same thing every year. It is more of a scare-tactic now, than actual science / meteorology.
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Mr.
By Nick, (2008-04-10 15:26)
Good article, however forecasters have been saying the exact same thing every year. It is more of a scare-tactic now, than actual science / meteorology.

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