According to reports, the calculator commonly used to predict women's chances of getting breast cancer underestimates the risk for most black women and should be adjusted to reflect new findings specific to African-Americans.

A new risk calculator for black women will be made available shortly to researchers and clinicians, said Dr. Mitchell Gail, lead author of a research paper published in this week's Journal of the National Cancer Institute.

By spring it will be incorporated into the institute's Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool, which is publicly available online and has been used for nearly two decades to help women understand their probability of developing the disease.

"We're recommending that African-American women use the new model," said Gail, chief of biostatistics at the National Cancer Institute.

Gail, who led a team of researchers from government agencies and private universities in developing the new model, was also the lead researcher on the Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool, often referred to as the Gail model.

Scientists have known the Gail model was developed largely from studies of white women and that it might not accurately assess risk for women of color. But the new paper is the first to show a systematic problem and to describe a solution.

Shelly Cummings, assistant director of the cancer risk clinic at the University of Chicago, hailed the new model as part of the movement toward individualized medicine. The information could be important in making decisions about screening and risk-reduction strategies.