The official levelling of war crimes charges
against Sudanese President Omar Hassan Ahmad al-Bashir has been
welcomed in many quarters, but fears remain the decision could cause an
escalation of violence in Darfur and more misery for millions of
long-suffering displaced Darfuris.
International Criminal
Court (ICC) Prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo on Monday requested an arrest
warrant on al-Bashir for crimes against humanity and genocide committed
in Sudan's restive western province, where the UN says up to 300,000
people have been killed and 2.5 million displaced by five years of
ethnic conflict.
The response by the joint United
Nations-African Union peacekeeping mission UNAMID was to begin pulling
non-essential staff out of Darfur on Tuesday amid concerns that members
of the mission, already a target for deadly attacks, would come under
further fire.
General Martin Luther Agwai, UNAMID Force
Commander said that force protection levels and patrolling would remain
the same and that peacekeepers would 'continue to assist humanitarian
organizations to do their job.'
The problem is that the
current force is unlikely to be able to cope should the situation
escalate. UNAMID - which has less than 10,000 of the planned 26,000
military personnel in place - is already struggling to fulfill its
peacekeeping role.
Sudan has continued to block the full
deployment of troops through various means, including demanding only
African peacekeepers.
There are also lingering suspicions
that the government is harassing and even attacking UNAMID through the
proxy weapon of the Arab Janjaweed militia.
Khartoum has long
been accused of using the Janjaweed to commit atrocities against
Darfur's black population and suppress the rebels, who took up arms
against what they called decades of neglect and discrimination by the
Arab-dominated government.
Seven peacekeepers died last week
in an attack believed to have been carried out by the Janjaweed and
many in UN circles think the militia could step up raids as the
government seeks to punish UNAMID for the ICC's actions.
UN
Secretary General Ban Ki-moon on Monday highlighted the fact that the
ICC is an independent institution and called on Sudan to cooperate with
UNAMID.
However, militiamen are not likely to bother with
such distinctions, and Sudan issued a stark warning about the
consequences of the possible arrest warrant.
'Our reading of
this move by Moreno-Ocampo is that it will lead the peace process to a
disaster,' Sudan's UN Ambassador Abdalmahmood Abdalhaleem Mohamad said
at UN headquarters in New York.
He urged the UN to choose between the ICC or peace in Darfur: 'You cannot have it both ways, the choice is very clear.'
But UN staff on the ground are not just worried about government
militia. They are worried that rebel groups, emboldened by the charges,
could soon launch a series of attacks.
'People are a little
tense and there has been a lot of catastrophic thinking,' a source
within the UN in Darfur told Deutsche Presse-Agentur dpa. 'Over the
coming days, it is possible the rebel forces, which have been gathering
faster than expected, might do something.'
An escalation in
violence, whether directed at UNAMID or not, will only mean more misery
for the battered population of Darfur, millions of whom are living in
refugee camps and are entirely dependent on humanitarian aid.
'The problem...is that the Prosecutor's legal strategy also poses major
risks for the fragile peace and security environment in Sudan, with a
real chance of greatly increasing the suffering of very large numbers
of its people,' the International Crisis Group (ICG) said in a
statement.
However, the ICG did sound a note of hope.
While Sudan does not recognize the ICC - it last year refused to
extradite a government minister and a militia leader wanted by the
court - the ICG believes there is an outside chance Moreno-Ocampo's
request could move the peace process forward.
'It may be that
the increased pressure...will lead it (Sudan) to take long overdue
steps to cease all violence and implement genuine and credible measures
to resolve the Darfur crisis.'