Forecasters say the natural cycle in air pressure and
sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic
became more favorable to storms beginning in 1995. The devastating natural
program will continue, bringing more hurricanes and storms than ever. The
predictions were made for 15 to 20 years to come.
“We don't attribute this to anything humans are doing,”
William Gray, forecaster at Colorado State University,
said, according to the Baltimore
Sun. “These are natural” cycles. This is the result of a combination of warmer
sea-surface temperatures and more favorable sea-levels winds, which determine
the hurricanes.
Bill Read, the new director of the National Hurricane
Center, said last week
that he wants the official forecasts to present predictions as being
"above average, at average or below average," rather than placing
emphasis on any specific storm counts, said NHC spokesman Dennis Feltgen,
according to the same source.
Hurricane activity from June to November will be “well about
average,” according to CSU’s forecasters Phil Klotzbach and William Gray.
According to the same source, forecasters predicted 15
storms, including 8 hurricanes and three storms that reach “major” status, with
Category 3 winds of 111 mph or higher.
A prediction made by forecasters at the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration’s Center for Climate Prediction is expected to be
issued in May.
Knowing that forecasters may overestimate the storm
activity, or underestimate it, Bill Read said that this time he wants a more
specific prediction. Instead of counting the storms, he wants the official
forecasters to present predictions on a scale, and emphasize on the possible
effects of an “above average,” “at average,” or “below average” storm.
One of the storms predicted in 1992 was Hurricane Andrew,
which devastated South Florida.