Arizona Senator John McCain picked up key momentum Saturday in his bid
to become the Republican presidential nominee, but there was still no
clear frontrunner in the crowded centre-right pack.
McCain picked up 33 per cent of the vote in the first state in the
socially conservative South to weigh in on the presidential contenders,
edging out former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, a Baptist preacher
and favourite of many Evangelical Christians.
Long considered a maverick in his conservative party, McCain, 71,
has not been a darling of the Republican establishment, and he lost
South Carolina and the nomination to President George W Bush in 2000.
Despite this year's win, he's still no heir apparent.
Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, 60, hopes to see to
that. He picked up a win earlier Saturday in the Nevada caucus after
being the only major Republican candidate to appear there.
The less sought-after state brought Romney 18 delegates to the
presidential nominating convention in September, just one fewer than
McCain gained in South Carolina. And Romney still leads in the
all-important delegate count that ultimately decides the party's
nominee, though the overwhelming majority of delegates are yet to be
decided.
There remains no consensus candidate who appeals to voters on all
the key Republican issues - the economy, national defence and social
issues. With so many viable candidates - McCain, Romney and Huckabee
each have victories in the first five contests - the field could remain
murky beyond the so-called Super Tuesday on February 5, when more than
20 states go to the polls in both major parties.
McCain's win Saturday would have been a shock just a few months
ago, when his campaign was given up for dead by virtually all major
political commentators. Surveys of Republicans showed him lagging the
top contenders, he struggled to raise money, and his campaign was
forced to slim down operations and cut staff.
If Saturday's results show anything, it's the unreliability of hasty predictions.
The day also saw Senator Hillary Clinton take the centre-left
Democratic Party's Nevada caucus with 51 per cent, beating Senator
Barack Obama at 45 per cent and former senator John Edwards with 4 per
cent.
Forecasts that an endorsement by a union that represents many
casino workers in gambling mecca Las Vegas would swing the state toward
Obama also proved premature, as voters exercised their independence.
Seven of nine caucus sites set up inside casinos to allow shift
workers to participate flouted expectations they would help Obama.
Clinton's campaign was widely declared to be in grave jeopardy
after her loss to Obama on January 3 in Iowa, only for the former first
lady to roar back ahead of the pack with an unpredicted win five days
later in New Hampshire.
The lesson of both Clinton's survival and McCain's return from oblivion is that neither nomination fight has been decided.
Clinton's restored frontrunner status could dissipate again within
a week, though, when South Carolina's Democrats have their turn. The
state's January 26 primary is the first where African-American voters
will have a decisive role.
While Clinton has the goodwill of black voters, among whom her
husband, former president Bill Clinton, remains popular, Obama has
already run the most viable presidential campaign ever by an
African-American, creating a powerful lure for minorities and young
voters.
McCain, for his part, is still far from inevitable. At best, he's
the frontrunner to eventually become the frontrunner, but he must first
win in Florida, where the Republican primary is January 29.
In Florida, Huckabee has a natural constituency in the socially
conservative northern part of the state, while Romney has the campaign
war chest to continue fighting. Even as the field is expected to thin
with the looming departure of former senator Fred Thompson, former New
York mayor Rudy Giuliani will for the first time become a factor in
Florida.
A social liberal, Giuliani has staked his campaign on making a
splash in the Sunshine State, after making a tactical decision to avoid
the other January contests. His big-state strategy - intended to
capitalize on his name recognition and moderate appeal - has been
widely ridiculed by the same media commentators who counted out McCain
and believed Clinton on the ropes.
But a strong showing in Florida would put Giuliani back into the
mix for Super Tuesday next month. The absence of a clear frontrunner
leaves the door open for yet another surprise.